If you drive in Fort Worth, you may have seen the headline earlier this month: Texas says car insurance rates are falling for 4.4 million drivers. Good news — until your renewal letter shows up and the number went the wrong way.
Both things can be true at once. On October 8, the Texas Department of Insurance (TDI) announced that home and auto rates are “trending down for many Texans.” And buried in the filing records behind that announcement is a split story: rate-hike filings for auto insurance outnumber decreases nearly two to one, and the state’s largest homeowners insurer wants to raise rates on more than 750,000 policies. Here’s the honest breakdown of what the state said, what the filings actually show, and what Fort Worth drivers should do before their next renewal.
What TDI announced on October 8
TDI’s release covers rate filings made since July 1, 2026. The headline numbers are real:
- Homeowners: filed rate changes averaged a 4.3% decrease over the past 90 days, affecting about 700,000 Texas policyholders. ASI Lloyds — a Progressive company — filed a 6% decrease covering 71,000 policyholders, and Texas Farm Bureau Mutual filed a 5.2% decrease covering 133,000 policyholders.
- Auto: companies filed rate decreases affecting 4.4 million policyholders since July 1. Auto Club County Mutual (affiliated with AAA) filed a 3% decrease covering 235,000 policyholders. Loya Insurance filed a 10.3% decrease covering 39,000 policyholders.
Insurance Commissioner Amanda Crawford called the filings “an encouraging sign for Texas consumers” and added the part that matters most to you: “As rates moderate, Texans should take advantage of the competitive market, shop around, and make sure they’re getting the best value for their coverage.” Nearly 160 companies sell auto and homeowners insurance in Texas, so there is genuinely a market to shop. You can search the rate filings yourself on TDI’s website, and TDI’s Help Line (800-252-3439) can answer questions.
Governor Greg Abbott tied the news to his affordability push: “High insurance costs hit Texas families hard, and premiums must reflect real risk. These filings show lower rates for many Texas homeowners and drivers.”
The part the release left out: the largest home insurer is asking for an increase
Now the other half of the homeowners story — the half not in the press release. An October 12 analysis of the filing records by Live Insurance News reports that the 4.3% figure is an unweighted average: a small regional insurer’s cut counts the same as the state’s largest carrier’s. Since July 1, insurers filed 26 homeowners decreases and 5 increases. When ABC13’s investigators asked TDI for the true all-company average over the past 90 days, a TDI spokesperson confirmed it was a 0.6% increase, not a decrease. The release headline and the underlying data point in opposite directions.
Why? Because of the filing the release didn’t mention: State Farm Lloyds, the largest homeowners insurer in Texas, filed a 4% statewide-average increase on July 29 — effective for renewals starting November 1. Its own estimates show roughly 751,000 of its 987,000 Texas policies would see increases, while about 234,000 would see decreases. More than 135,000 policyholders would see premiums rise 10% or more. More Texans are getting a homeowners increase from State Farm alone than are getting decreases from every other company combined.
Two notes of context. First, TDI sent State Farm a letter questioning its “higher rate need” given the company’s reported 2025 results, and as of mid-October reporting, TDI’s review of the filing was still ongoing with no reduction ordered — so the final number for November renewals isn’t locked in. Second, the Houston-area county breakdowns reported from the filing (Harris +3.6%, Fort Bend +5.3%, Montgomery +5.8%) show how much of an “average” increase depends on where you live. Fort Worth drivers should read that as a warning: your ZIP code can matter more than the statewide average.
On auto, the split story is even sharper
The 4.4-million-drivers figure is accurate — but the filing records show that auto rate increases outnumber decreases nearly two to one when counted by filing. The companies behind them are names you know:
- Allstate is raising auto rates — and it’s already in effect. Two Allstate companies filed auto increases of 6.9% and 5.5%, effective for renewals starting October 15. Together those two entities wrote roughly $1.3 billion in Texas auto premiums in 2025. If you’re an Allstate policyholder whose renewal started after October 15, the higher rate is already on your bill.
- State Farm is cutting auto rates — but the money hasn’t arrived yet. The company filed a 0.5% auto decrease effective November 25, following a cut of more than 4.1% earlier this year — cumulative decreases of more than 7% over five months, which State Farm estimates at over $250 million in reduced annual Texas premiums, or roughly $60 per vehicle. Note the tense: the November 25 cut is upcoming, not savings you’ve already banked. State Farm also announced a dividend averaging $105 per vehicle to eligible Texas customers who held a policy in 2025.
- The insurer of last resort is going up, days from now. The Texas Automobile Insurance Plan Association (TAIPA) — where drivers who can’t get coverage in the standard market end up — filed a 2.8% increase in private passenger auto rates (and 4.9% in commercial auto), effective for new and renewal business starting November 1. If you’re in the assigned-risk pool, you’re paying more, not less.
One more structural fact worth knowing: Texas is a file-and-use state, which means insurers can put filed rates into use before TDI finishes reviewing the math. Reporting on TDI’s filing data notes the department received more than 2,000 rate filings in 2025 and rejected none. That doesn’t mean TDI never pushes back — the State Farm homeowners letter shows it does — but it means a filing sitting in review is not the same thing as a filing that’s been stopped.
Why your renewal can go up while “rates are falling”: five reasons
This is the question the headline leaves unanswered. Here are the five honest answers:
1. Filing averages are company averages — your policy is priced individually. A rate filing says what happens to a company’s book of business on average. Your renewal reflects your driving record, your claims history, your vehicle’s repair costs, your ZIP code, and your coverage choices. As we covered in our October 7 post on TDI’s transparency tool, claims history and location of the risk are among the top reasons insurers decline applicants statewide — the same factors push renewals up for existing policyholders.
2. The averages are unweighted. The 4.3% homeowners figure treats a small insurer’s filing the same as the market leader’s. When the largest carrier moves the opposite direction, the average of the filings tells you very little about the average of the policyholders. The true all-company average, per TDI’s own confirmation to ABC13, was a slight increase.
3. Rate changes phase in at renewal — and effective dates lag. A cut filed today with a November 25 effective date (like State Farm’s auto filing) doesn’t touch your October renewal. An increase effective for renewals starting October 15 (like Allstate’s) is already baked into your current bill. Your renewal date decides which filings you feel, not the date of the press release.
4. Your risk factors may have changed even if the market didn’t. An at-fault accident, a new claim on your record, a move to a higher-risk ZIP code, a teen driver added to the policy, or miles driven creeping up — any of these can raise your individual premium while your carrier’s statewide average falls. And a lapse in continuous coverage is one of the costliest mistakes a driver can make: insurers price a gap as risk.
5. Small cuts sit on top of huge increases. Even taking TDI’s numbers at face value, the decreases land on a foundation that climbed steeply: reporting on TDI data puts the average Texas homeowners premium at about $1,500 in 2020 and about $2,460 in 2025 — increases of 10.8%, 21.1%, and 18.7% in 2022 through 2024. A 4.3% cut on a $2,460 premium saves about $106 a year. The direction is good news. The magnitude is not the whole story.
What Fort Worth drivers should actually do before renewal
Commissioner Crawford’s advice was the most useful sentence in the whole release: shop around. Here’s how to do it well:
- Start 30 days before your renewal. That’s enough time to get competing quotes, correct errors, and switch without a coverage gap. Texas auto policies require at least 60 days’ notice of a nonrenewal — but you switching voluntarily just needs the new policy in force before the old one ends.
- Get quotes from at least three carriers — and make them comparable. Match limits, deductibles, and optional coverages (rental reimbursement, UM/UIM, roadside) across quotes. A cheaper quote with a $2,500 deductible and no rental reimbursement is not the same product. Our rental-car guide explains exactly what rental reimbursement is worth when your car is in the shop — don’t discover you dropped it the week you need it.
- Check whether your company actually filed a change. TDI’s public rate-filing search shows what each company submitted and whether TDI has objected. If your insurer filed an increase effective on your renewal date, that’s a signal to shop harder.
- Ask about discounts you haven’t claimed. TDI’s own savings tips for drivers include defensive-driving courses, telematics/usage-based programs, bundling home and auto, and good-student discounts. The price-optimization ban in Bulletin B-0007-26, covered in our October 7 post, means your rate must reflect your risk — so make sure your insurer knows the risk-reducing facts about you.
- Don’t buy the lower premium by gutting coverage. Dropping uninsured-motorist coverage or rental reimbursement to shave $20 a month is the most expensive “saving” in insurance. One hit-and-run in Fort Worth without UM coverage, and you’ll wish for that $20 back. Compare quotes at the coverage level you actually need.
- If you’ve been dropped, you have rights. Since January 1, 2026, your insurer must give you a written explanation for a declination, cancellation, or nonrenewal — no request needed. Our October 7 guide walks through the full playbook, from decoding the notice to shopping without a gap.
One more thing from the shop floor: your claims history is part of your renewal price, and a claim on your record should at least result in a properly repaired car. If your insurer’s estimate looks low after a wreck, Texas gives you the right to appraisal — and if someone else caused the crash, a repaired car can still be worth less than before, which is what our diminished-value guide covers. A claim on your history plus a cut-rate repair is the worst of both worlds.
The state’s headline isn’t wrong — 4.4 million Texas drivers really are in the path of filed decreases. But a filing average is not a promise, and your renewal is a negotiation between one company’s math and your risk profile. Go into renewal season like you’d go into any negotiation: with the numbers, with alternatives, and with enough time to walk away.
Frequently asked questions
If TDI says Texas auto rates are falling, why did my renewal go up?
TDI’s October 8 announcement reports company-level filing averages — rate decreases affecting 4.4 million auto policyholders since July 1. Your renewal is priced individually on your driving record, claims history, ZIP code, and coverage choices. Auto rate-hike filings also outnumber decreases nearly two to one by filing count, and filings phase in only at your renewal date, so the “falling” average and your bill can easily move in opposite directions.
Which companies are actually cutting or raising Texas auto rates this fall?
On the decrease side: Auto Club County Mutual (AAA-affiliated) filed a 3% cut covering 235,000 policyholders, Loya Insurance filed a 10.3% cut covering 39,000, and State Farm filed a 0.5% cut effective November 25, following a cut of more than 4.1% earlier in 2026. On the increase side: two Allstate companies filed auto increases of 6.9% and 5.5%, already effective for renewals starting October 15. TAIPA, the insurer of last resort, filed a 2.8% private-passenger increase effective November 1.
Is State Farm raising Texas homeowners rates?
State Farm Lloyds, the largest homeowners insurer in Texas, filed a 4% statewide-average increase on July 29, effective for renewals starting November 1, 2026 — with roughly 751,000 of its 987,000 Texas policies estimated to see increases. TDI sent the company a letter questioning the rate need, and as of mid-October reporting the review was still ongoing with no reduction ordered, so the final number isn’t locked in. TDI’s October 8 release did not mention this filing.
When should I shop for car insurance in Texas?
Start at least 30 days before your renewal date. Get at least three comparable quotes — matching liability limits, deductibles, and optional coverages like rental reimbursement and UM/UIM. Check TDI’s public rate-filing search to see whether your company filed a change effective on your renewal date, and never let coverage lapse: insurers price a gap in continuous coverage as risk, which raises your next premium.
What should I not cut from my policy to get a cheaper premium?
Don’t drop uninsured/underinsured motorist coverage or rental reimbursement just to shave dollars off the premium. One hit-and-run without UM coverage, or one crash without rental reimbursement while your car sits in a body shop, will cost far more than the monthly saving. Compare quotes at the coverage level you actually need, and claim discounts — defensive driving, telematics, bundling — before cutting protection.
Insurance rules summarized here reflect Texas Department of Insurance guidance and Texas Insurance Code provisions in effect as of publication. This post is general information, not legal or insurance advice, and not a guarantee of how any insurer will decide your case. Coverage decisions vary by insurer, policy, and individual circumstances. For advice on your specific policy, talk to your agent or contact TDI.